The End of Suburbia As We Know It?

The suburban lifestyle has been called an experiment. The question is has it failed?

Richard Nixon famously called suburban middle-class homeowners the Forgotten Americans. The recent economic downturn may end up recasting them as the Unlucky Americans.

Evidence is mounting that the downturn is accomplishing what a generation of ambitious urban planners have been unable to: it is turning back the tide of suburban sprawl.

Rising foreclosures are leaving many new subdivisions half built with many established suburbs facing the prospect of abandonment. An ominous silence hangs over suburban communities across the country, and many wonder if the demand for suburban homes will ever recover.

How severe could the reversal of fortune be? A study by the Metropolitan Institute at Virginia Tech predicts that by 2025 there will be as many as 22 million unwanted large-lot homes in suburban areas.

Richard Florida, author of Who’s Your City? How the Creative Economy is Making Where You Live the Most Important Decision of Your Life, documents the rise and fall of suburbia in the April edition of the Atlantic Monthly.

“Suburbanization – and the sprawling growth it propelled – made sense for a time,” Florida writes. “But that was then; the economy is different now. A new geography is required.”

The new geography may well involve a resurgence of the old geography (read: the urban neighborhood). Established urban enclaves like Holy Cross, Irvington, West Indianapolis, Ransom Place and Watson-McCord were founded based on their close proximity to downtown Indianapolis. As the twin pillars of the suburban ideal – disposable income and the promise of cheap gas – show signs of irrevocable erosion, the logic of their urban antecedent shines ever brighter.

For his part, Richard Florida argues that there are other reasons to feel optimistic about the prospects of an urban revival in cities across the country. He argues that dense and diverse cities with “accelerated rates of urban metabolism” are the communities most likely to reenergize their economies.

“The places that thrive today are those with the highest velocity of ideas, the highest density of talented and creative people,” Florida writes. “Velocity and density are not words people use when they describe the suburbs.”